Southeast Asia's political mayhem

(Myanmar is also a country with a lack in political stability, in fact its military-run government has recently shifted its headquarters to a rural area, Aung San Suu Kyi still remains in detention, and a visit to Myanmar by ASEAN envoy Syed Hamid has been denied. All these has served only to isolate Myanmar further from the international community. In here, i shall only examine the more democratic systems of Philippines and Thailand.)

Referring to the recent upheavals in the Philippines and Thailand, we can see that South-east Asia is still relatively unstable politically. Both President Gloria Arroya and Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are facing an unprecedented backlash from the people, which has translated into mass protests and widespread social unrest in the country. Both leaders have brought the greatest economic growth to the country since their installation into office. Yet why has such a situation happened? Are the citizens too demanding of their leaders? Has corruption reared its ugly head? Is it allegiance to the West? Insensitivities towards needs of citizens? Misappropriation of funds??

In Thailand, the recent sale of telecommunications giant Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings is seen as a violation of national vital interests in the eyes of many Thais. They feel unsafe that such an important aspect should be internally controlled as telecommunications is an aspect of the country that is quite sensitive. Moreover, the Thaksin family structured their deal in a way that they avoided the taxes on profits from sales. The transaction even took place just one day after higher foreign shareholding ceilings in Thai companies were signed into law. This led people to think that Thaksin appeared to be placing the interests of his family and business cronies ahead of his conntry. Moreover, there is also a prevailing view among the opposition that he has manipulated the political system to his favour. Thaksin's administration was abused of abuse of power, corruption, nepotism. He was also criticised for his bid to place relatives in key positions in the country's security forces. At the moment, the opposition is boycotting the elections on April 2. But this would mean that even if Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party won, they would have won without competition and this would lead the public, especially the people in Bangkok(produces >65% of the countrys GDP), to seriously doubt the legitimacy of the candidates.

However, if Thaksin is simply overthrown without the elections, then Thailand would go back to the political uncertainty that it had suffered in the past decade, where there were 8 governments in total, even one installed by a military coup, before Thaksin came into office. All the hard work trying to institutionalize democracy would have been in vain. The political future of Thailand looks grim.

In the case of President Arroyo, she has been accused of corruption. Moreover, her recently installed curfew of one week to quell the rising unrest has even been viewed as a futile attempt to consolidate her hold on power. Her win in the elections last year was claimed to be a fraud. There are also many corruption scandals facing her and her family.

Political instability has serious repercussions for the country. Net foreign direct investment will be affected adversely and the people will eventually suffer as a result. Moreover, the reputation of the country is also affected. In the case of Philippines, the confidence of lending agencies is also affected.

In view of all these, it can be seen that transparency in the government is very important. Also, education of the people is also crucial to ensure that they are able to make critical judgments of the government and resort to peaceful means to effect a change in ruling. Political unrest ultimately brings benefits to no one and it will only be a vicious cycle, eg. 2 Filipino presidents in the past were brought down by mass protests.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/07/13/news/phils.php
Pressure mounts against Arroyo - july 14,2005 (International Herald Tribune, Carlos H. Conde)
"Will Thaksin survive biggest political storm?" 11/3/06 Leslie Lopez (ST)